CHAPTER 6-5 CONTROL AND FREEDOM IN SOCIETY - II SOCIETY AND ECONOMY AS SPONTANEOUSLY EVOLVED SYSTEMS A nation is vastly larger and more complex than is any business firm (though some companies are larger than some countries in revenue, and even in number of personnel. More important than size is complexity. Multiplicity of goals is a crucial complicating factor. A business can consider itself to have the single goal of profit, or it may choose to consider a few other goals such as employee welfare, civic welfare.1 In contrast, unless the society takes as its ideology some Hegelian or mystic belief that the state itself is an entity whose size or power or cultural influence should be maximized, every individual in the society has a set of personal goals which must be considered in an overall decision about how a country is to be governed. Methods that will not work well in a large and complex modern society, suffice for smaller groups such as the family or tribe are appropriate for smaller groups. In a small family, the "mother" can know the tastes and schedules of the members of the family, and can therefore choose a menu and mealtimes rather well from the point of view of all members of the family; the "father" can know who most needs new tools, and who can best perform the various chores. But knowledge of others' desires quickly becomes more and more difficult as the size of the group increases. This implies that decentralized decision-making becomes more attractive as the group increases in size. Difficulty of knowing the particular productive skills of the members of the group, and their work interests, also operates to increase the relative value of decentralization as the group increases in size. Every group requires a mechanism that decides who will do which job. If individuals do not select for themselves through a market system among the choices offered by organizations, the government will have to match people and jobs -- as is the case with new high-school and university graduates in China, who are assigned to jobs by government agencies. When a society does subordinate all else to achieving a single goal, as happens in wartime, organizing not only the military services but also the economy by central planning and command may (or may not) yield superior results to a price-directed enterprise system. Indeed, this explains why an otherwise-backward and inefficient society such as the Soviet Union can compete as well as it does with the United states in the military realm or in sports. This success has unfortunately led many people to conclude by analogy that a command system can also compete successfully with an enterprise system in non-military realms. ("We will bury you", said Nikita Kruschev.) Let us now focus on the economic sub-system of societies. Until the advent of Communism in the USSR in 1917, all economies had developed almost wholly as a result of individual investment decisions in a regime of private ownership, free markets, and uncontrolled prices. Yes, there have always government- owned enterprises, especially in transportation, and there have been government regulations of some business practices -- including wage and price controls -- for at least the past 4000 years (Schuettinger and Butler, 1979). And under systems of feudal ownership of farmland, peasants were hardly free. Yet before 1917 no country had central planning and control of production, or unified ownership of land and capital. It was taken for granted that the initiative for opening and closing enterprises would come from private individuals. Socialist thinking of the 19th Century (see Hayek, 1952, Part 2) concluded that government ownership would increase efficiency and equity by substituting "rational" planning and large-scale enterprises for an enterprise system. This system is termed a "command" economy because instructions about who is to produce what come from a central authority. Persons who consider themselves the "social engineers" of such command systems usually take physics as their model. In that science, the number of crucial variables is far smaller than in economics, and their interactions are simpler. To understand the movement of a billiard ball you need take into account only the table, the force of the stick, the weight of the balls, and the initial position of the balls. But to fully understand and predict the behavior of a single economic actor in a market, you would need to know all the contents of all the participants' minds, and all the interactions among them. But the individual does not need most of this knowledge in order to do her/his business successfully. Integral to the thinking of those who favor a command economy is concern about what they perceive to be the "chaos" of an "uncontrolled" economy and society. Perhaps this fear of "chaos" arises out of the "engineering" bent of mind which transfers the idea of planning from the individual enterprise (where it is inevitable and necessary) to the context of an economy, without even questioning whether this is a sensible intellectual transfer. Another impetus to centralized control is lack of belief in the rational capacity of individuals, and of people's willingness to exert their rationality -- especially individuals with less education and wealth than the person who is doing the worrying. People who espouse central planning also tend to believe, as Hayek paraphrases W. C. Mitchell, that "since man has himself created the institutions of society and civilization, he must also be able to alter them at will so as to satisfy his desires or wishes" (1979, p. 3). But this lack of confidence in private initiative does not accord with experience. Certainly there are individuals who cannot well fend for themselves. But anyone who has close acquaintance with squatter settlements in, say, Latin America, or with immigrants who have come to the United States with no skills or even knowledge of the language, has learned that these people get themselves organized as individuals and as groups, and pursue their and their families' lives with intelligence and energy, in the main. It is also clear from the example of the printing industry in the preceding chapter that the absence of central direction does not mean "chaos." Indeed, chaos almost never is met with in an economy, though it is constantly worried about by politicians. Chaotic conditions are only found in suddenly-arising situations such as a gold rush or a government homestead land sale, in the nineteenth century in the U.S. West. And the chaos only lasts briefly. Because individuals and businesses can reap windfall benefit from a disequilibrium, they rush to exploit it, and by so doing they remove the disequilibrium and transform chaos into order and stability. That is, true chaos represents a terrific economic opportunity, and as soon as entrepreneurs respond to the opportunity, the chaotic elements disappear into an orderly market pattern. Nor is confidence in the power of "rational" central planning warranted by their results. For some years now, there has been ample statistical proof that planned economies are far less efficient than are market-oriented economies, in addition to providing the most important benefit of freedom. But in the 1980's the abysmal failure of Communism became unmistakable with the collapse of the Eastern European economies. So goes one more idea cooked up and perpetuated (and still taught in American universities) by those with too much faith in their own reason and too little faith in the accumulated patterns of human experience. Most interesting about a command economy are the two reasons why it cannot succeed in achieving economic efficiency -- the lack of incentive by individuals to invest their energies and their talents in producing goods that other people are willing to pay for, and the inability of a centrally-planned system to take advantage of the information that individuals possess about the special productive characteristics of the people and equipment with which they work, as well as information about the demand for goods and services in their locality. This theoretical explanation for this failure of central planning has been known since David Hume and Adam Smith, and it was refined into modern form by Karl Menger, Ludwig von Mises, and Friedrich Hayek. Even in principle, the amount of knowledge necessary to run a modern economy efficiently on the command principle exceeds the possibility of collection of information by any central planning organization. Efficient central planning would require complete understanding of the operation of the entire mechanism as it now exists, as well as the process by which each aspect got to be what it is. If it makes sense to rank impossibilities, this would be far more impossible than gathering the information necessary for efficient control of every car in highway traffic. Interestingly, the more advanced the society, the more difficult it is to control it efficiently with central planning, and the more crucial is decentralization. This contradicts the intuition that greater complexity requires a higher degree of planning and organization; that may be true for most sub-groups and enterprises with a society, but not for the society itself. Nor does the great computational power of the supercomputer alter this conclusion. No conceivable amount of computing power could possibly ascertain and sort out all the changes in preferences and circumstances as they happen instantaneously. To recognize and accept this limit on our human capacities requires a certain amount of humility. Many find intolerable Hume's dictum that though the evolution of society takes place by human action, its basic structure has not -- and cannot -- advance solely by overall human design. Our society was not constructed from scratch by a mastermind, nor could any mastermind have conceived its fullness and richness. People do not enjoy recognizing and accepting our inevitable ignorance and fallibility which follows inexorably from the wide dispersion of information and knowledge among the participants in our society and economy. And our traditions and values cannot be fully understood because they evolve by a survival process of trial-error-success. This does not imply that careful, thoughtful persons and groups cannot make changes in the society that will improve it. Rather, it implies that changes should be made with due recognition of the complexity of the system, and of the possibility that some patterns that seem to be useless or counter-productive may have hidden uses. It implies proceeding with extreme care in dumping existing patterns of organization. Again in Robert Frost's words, one should try to find out why a fence was put up before tearing it down. It is important to understand that the problem of effectively organizing a country is not the problem of learning how to carry out centralized control more effectively, as soviet reformer Mikhail Gorbachev still seemed to think that it is, as of 1988. With a grin and a wink, the Kremlin boss flattered one capitalist tycoon at his table, General Motors chairman Roger Smith, declaring that the Soviet economy should be run more efficiently -- "just like GM!" Newsweek, December 21, 1987, p. 15. Gorbachev's vision is central control with efficient coordination. But effective centrally-controlled organization is impossible in principle because of the lack of coordination that only a market provides. Only a market can equate supply and demand effectively. Until this fact is recognized and acted upon, the USSR will not be able to improve its inefficiency. The vast, widely-dispersed knowledge about individuals' preferences and abilities is communicated automatically in a decentralized society through the price signals that are transmitted by markets. The entire intricate system is built up spontaneously by people responding only to the signals in their own spheres. Any barrier to signals passing unimpeded introduces distortion into an economy and interferes with its efficient working. Such distortion is a malign effect of regulations that forbid individuals from freely setting prices and supplying goods according to the demands of the public. Business people who conspire to fix prices in an industry similarly interfere with price signals and the working of the price systems. Even a command economy such as the Soviet Union continues to be, as of 1990, needs price signals to indicate to potential purchasers which goods are available in larger and smaller supply. It is a major defect of command economies that they do not have markets to generate such price signals automatically. Socialist economies often are forced to refer to prices set in market economies. For example, the prices Eastern European countries charge each other for such commodities as oil and natural gas are set on the basis of world market prices. The prices themselves may be the most important product that command economies cannot produce. A second fatal flaw of socialism is its abnegation of human property and work incentives. For example, for the North Korean communist party, "Market incentives ...are bourgeois ideas, to be stamped out. People should work hard because they are building communism, not because of some special reward for hard work." (Wall Street Journal, Aug 15, 89, p 1). Different views of the role of private property follow from different views of how malleable is human nature. For Mandeville, Hume, and Smith (as for Locke) the origin of their interest in economics and society was their interest in human nature. They sought to understand human nature. (In contrast, for Godwin, Marx, Engels, Lenin, and their followers, the focus of interest is how to change human nature.) The importance of the malleability of human nature in socialist theory is revealed in the USSR's bizarre and tragic course of action with respect to the study of genetics, and especially the Lysenko incident. The USSR was willing to pervert that entire scientific field to fight against the idea that some human propensities might be affected by a person's genetic makeup. (I note this even though I think there is little or no reason to believe that children's mental capacities are genetically connected to their parents' capacities, which does not include the effect of parental influence after birth. Of course this proposition is exceedingly difficult to test, and in no way suggests that genes do not not influence mental capacity. I shall amplify this complex assertion elsewhere.) Even in the U. S., private property became less respected in the 1960's. Often after a riot it was written that "only" property was damaged, as if property does not matter much. But property rights are fundamental to any society. And property includes not just physical goods, but also intellectual property. Property, and the rules surrounding property and business activity, are the substrate for market activity. As Hume and Smith pointed out, if there is no protection for property, there is no liberty. Property is not just wood and concrete and paper and steel; it is the right to arrange one's life, privacy, and work in such ways as one chooses, free of the interference of others. Other Effects of A Market-Directed Economy When thinking about an economic system, one must consider not just what we want of an economy, but what we want of a society. A market system certainly has drawbacks. Most obvious is that some people do not fare relatively well -- in both market and non-market societies. A market society may, however, tax incomes and wealth, and redistribute as much as the public decides to those who do not receive what is considered sufficient income from the market. There is nothing inconsistent between a market system and building a safety net. This point is either not understood or is willfully obscured by many advocates of more government control of the economy. There are many ways of redistributing to the poor, however. Most consistent with a market system is simply giving money to poorer people, as much as the society deems they should get, rather than a system of special handouts of shoes or food or housing or milk for the children. Another drawback of a market system is lack of perceived fairness. A saintly religious woman may receive $10,000 year for running a hospice for people dying of cancer, and the only two-time Nobel winner -- who has changed the lives of the world with transistors and may change it even more with the results of his later work -- may make $100,000 per year (a guess), whereas a basketball player may earn $3 million per year and an investment banker $500 million in a year. There is no obvious connection between reward and merit or virtue. That is, there is a breach between "use value" and "exchange value". This non-equality of virtue and reward, and the inequality among persons, are part of the overall pattern in life. Some people are born beautiful and others ugly, some short and some basketball-tall. We hanker for a system that would allocate income by "intrinsic" merit. But any system intended to do so would produce results even less appealing than the results of a market system. Who would adjudge merit -- productivity and morality? Imagine the arguments. A major drawback of any alternative to the market system is that the results would not be automatic, but would be subject to the judgments of committees and bureaucrats, all with their own standards of merit and their own personal interests. Nevertheless, this lack of perceived fairness of a market system is a major problem for a market-based society. If wages set by the market do not determine where a person will work, some arbitrary power must do so. Remember how in Communist China people who graduate from high school or college cannot freely choose the jobs that they like. They must sign up on lists, then wait for months or years until bureaucrats assign them jobs by some process aimed at matching industrial needs and the applicants' abilities. Graduates must go where they are sent, to the city or to the country side. In practice this means that the most desirable jobs are arranged by family or friends or by bribes. A market system can aim to achieve equality of opportunity, which certainly is a wonderful goal if you care about human liberty. A market system cannot achieve equality of results. Equality of results requires that the society treat people unequally, and that is not compatible with equality of opportunity, by definition. Milton Friedman emphasizes that the main benefit of a market economy is the freedom and liberty that accompany it. The argument is strong and persuasive that there cannot be personal freedom without economic freedom, and economic freedom implies free market relationships. The economic productivity benefits of a market system are a bonus for those of us who care most about individual liberty. Friedman (and I) would be for a market system even if it was less efficient. In addition, a market system offers the best protection of the economic situation of minorities, as well as of their liberties. Another disadvantage of a market system is the absence of treatment fitted to individuals' needs in the way that a family or small society can provide for its members. The related advantage is the greater sense of justice in the Anglo-Saxon fashion of treatment by rules rather than authorities; this is a major gain conferred by a market system. Those who hanker for the sort of justice promised (though not actually brought about) by socialist societies -- treatment based upon need -- may not agree that in this respect the market enhances fairness and personal freedom. A market society offers personal liberty in the sense that an individual can know what the rules are, and behave according to them, without having to worry about having his or her fate depending upon a personal relationship with arbitrary authorities. The main direct economic advantage of a larger impersonal society is that it makes possible the multitudinous activities which support large-scale production of a variety of technologically advanced commodities. And as noted earlier, only such a society offers individuals a wide range of opportunities to sell their skills freely. REFERENCES Hayek, Friedrich, New Studies in Philosophy, Politics, Economics, and the History of Ideas (Chicago: CUP, 1978) Schuettinger, Robert, and Eamonn Butler, Forty Centuries of Wage and Price Controls (Ottawa, Ill: Caroline House, 1979) Hayek, Friedrich, The Counter-Revolution of Science (Indianapolis: Liberty Press, 1952/1979) FOOTNOTE 1Whether a firm should take into account goals other than profit is a thorny question whose answer is less obvious than many assume it is. Page # thinking spon264@ 3-3-4d